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Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Luck in trading, business, and life. This book is about luck, that single most important factor in everything. It tells how we perceive and deal with luck and how we filter the mass of information that is thrown at us daily, to understand what is important and what is the result of pure chance. Fooled by Randomness delves into the reality of the lucky fool being in the "right place at the right time," and is set around the greatest forum for investigating the misconception of chance perceived as skill—the world of trading and derivatives. How often have you heard about the brilliant trader, with the gift of second sight, suddenly wiped out by a supposedly rare—or random—event? And how common is the business leader who accepts full praise for leadership qualities when stock prices rise, but none when they collapse? Written in an accessible and entertaining manner, Taleb combines personal trading experiences, with details and examples from a multidisciplinary array of topics—ancient history, classical literature, philosophy, mathematics, and science.
In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse.
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